The alarming nature of climate-related weather events was driven home with the tragic sinking of the superyacht Bayesian, off the coast of Sicily on August 19. A curious factor of Bayes’ theorem, after which the boat was named, is that it incorporates the application of both objective data and subjective opinion.
There’s a lot of both involved here.
At this point, there is no proof that the sinking of the Bayesian actually had anything to do with climate change, but a lot of data suggests that it might.
The area of subjective opinion is always tricky. In this case, particularly if you’re reading this item in middle America, it might even depend on your political persuasion.
Looking at the facts, though, an increasing body of evidence is raising scientific concerns about waterspouts and an alarming rise in ocean temperatures, especially in the Mediterranean.
But the problem isn’t confined to the Med. Last week, scientists confirmed the devasting impact of unprecedented ocean warming off the coast of Alaska when they announced the results of their investigations into the death of billions of crabs in 2022.
The research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found warmer, ice-free conditions in the southeast Bering Sea — the kind of conditions found in sub-Arctic regions — are roughly 200 times more likely now than before humans began burning planet-warming fossil fuels.
Bad for crabs
A marine heat wave in 2018 and 2019 was especially deadly for the crabs. Warmer water caused their metabolism to increase, but there wasn’t enough food to keep pace. Billions of crabs ultimately starved to death, devastating Alaska’s fishing industry in the following years.
But how does all this relate to the loss of the Bayesian, Baye’s theorem and waterspouts? Maybe it doesn’t, and for some people, none of this will ever add up to anything more than a curious coincidence.
Sometimes, facts can be so interesting.
For instance, the Bayesian’s builder said his “virtually unsinkable” creation could never have slipped beneath the waves in less than a minute. Confusingly, the real-time CCTV security footage captured 200 metres away says otherwise.
The nub of the issue here is what caused the Bayesian to turn over so quickly, and shouldn’t we all be a lot more concerned about the power of waterspouts? Science says we should.
In 2004, a waterspout in Methoni, Greece, picked up a boat and sent it sailing through the air, striking and killing a 10-year-old boy. Last year, a sudden storm and waterspout with winds of over 40 miles per hour overturned a tourist boat carrying off-duty intelligence agents on Italy’s Lake Maggiore, killing four.
Michalis Sioutas, a meteorologist based in Greece, says waterspouts can even generate “massive water displacements similar to tsunamis,” citing the gigantic waves that struck the coast of the Greek island of Samos during a 2004 cyclone, tossing boulders like toys.
“It’s very possible to talk about waterspouts or even tornadoes and extreme storms becoming common,” he told mainstream media last week.
