A new study has revealed that extreme weather events fueled by climate change are pushing up the prices of essential food items globally and creating broader threats to society.

Prices for a variety of products—ranging from potatoes in the UK to coffee in Brazil—have surged sharply in recent years due to weather events described as “so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020,” according to research led by Maximillian Kotz at the Barcelona Supercomputer Center.

While earlier studies have explored the long-term impact of rising temperatures on crop yields and food supply chains, this latest research, published last Monday, examined 16 case studies across 18 countries. It found that, between 2022 and 2024, short-term price spikes were directly linked to episodes of extreme heat, drought, or heavy rainfall.

Cabbage prices in South Korea were 70% higher last September than in September 2023, following a heatwave in August.

Olive oil prices up 50 per cent

The price of olive oil shot up by 50% in Europe in January 2024 from a year earlier after a prolonged drought across Italy and Spain in 2022 and 2023, while one of the most severe droughts that Mexico has faced over the last decade also led to a sharp increase in fruit and vegetable prices that month.

Rice prices soared by 48% in Japan in September 2024 in the wake of aheatwave that was the hottest since regional records began in 1946, bar the equally hot summer of 2023.

Ghana and Ivory Coast account for almost 60% of the world’s cocoa production. A heatwave in early 2024, which scientists attributed to climate change, was 4 degrees Celsius hotter than it would have been otherwise. As a result, global cocoa prices rose by a massive 280% in April of that year.

Healthy food tends to cost more than less healthy alternatives (e.g., fizzy drinks, potato chips, ultra-processed foods), so a jump in food prices can often lead low-income households to cut back on nutritious foods like fruits and vegetables, the study said. It highlighted the resulting “knock-on societal risks,” with weather-impacted prices potentially contributing to health complications like malnutrition, Type 2 diabetes and heart disease.

By driving up food prices, extreme weather conditions can also worsen overall inflation, which can lead to political unrest and social upheaval, the researchers noted.

The unprecedented nature of many of the climate conditions behind recent food price spikes highlights the ongoing threats to food security as climate change continues to push societies towards increasingly unfamiliar climate conditions, the report noted.

“With current policies and actions set to lead to global warming of between 2.2 °C and 3.4 °C above pre-industrial levels, unprecedented conditions are set to become increasingly common across the world. At the same time, new records for extreme conditions will continue to be set, further from those to which agricultural production and economic systems are currently adapted.”