The number of people dying from heat in the U.K. could soar to 50 times today’s numbers by the 2070s, a new study warns. However, experts say, it’s still possible to prevent much of this increase by reducing emissions and implementing measures to protect people from extreme heat.

The research, led by Rebecca Cole from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, was published in the journal PLOS Climate.

Worldwide, hot weather and heatwaves are set to become more common and severe as the climate changes. Extreme heat is especially dangerous for older adults and those with health issues—groups that are expected to grow in the coming years.

Even if we take major steps to fight climate change, the study predicts that some increase in heat-related deaths is likely. The good news is that it’s still possible to save many lives in the future.

Previous predictions have not adequately accounted for population changes or adaptation strategies, such as increased use of air conditioning, passive cooling, urban greening, and the development of community networks to support vulnerable populations.

A detailed review

To help address these challenges, Cole and colleagues estimated future U.K. heat-related deaths under more comprehensive scenarios of climate, population, and socioeconomic conditions, and with higher geographic resolution and coverage.

They combined Representative Concentration Pathways, representing future climate scenarios under different levels of greenhouse gas emissions, with U.K.-specific Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a set of plausible “storylines” for the country’s socioeconomic future, including the potential for adaptation.

They found that, with high emissions and socioeconomic inequalities, an estimated 34,027 yearly heat-related deaths may occur in the 2070s—about 50 times a baseline of 634 yearly deaths calculated from past rates for 1981 through 2021.

However, under scenarios of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation, the analysis estimates 4,592 annual heat-related deaths in the 2070s. The researchers note that this is still six times more than baseline, highlighting the need for increased adaption even in low-emissions scenarios.

Predicted heat-related deaths varied between regions in different scenarios, with rates generally lower in cooler Northern regions. The researchers also estimated that power outages may be responsible for up to 27 per cent of heat-related deaths during a serious heatwave.

On the basis of these findings, the researchers note the importance of strategies that combine climate change mitigation and adaptation, with a focus on equity and resilience.

“Projected increases in heat-related deaths are not just a consequence of rising temperatures — they’re also driven by how we build our cities, care for vulnerable populations, and address social inequality,” Dr Cole said.